Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4519…4eda other 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$36 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%41W / 51L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$40
sports 31% +$1
other 18% +$1
economics 15% +$3
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 20 +1.3% -8.4% 40% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 35 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 6% -9.1%
all 92 +0.6% -9.0% 45% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 1% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 1% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.82 per $1 lost it wins $7.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses41 / 51
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage489d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $196 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $95 −$3 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $95 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $63 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $94 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $202 +$4 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $89 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $90 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $98 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $99 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $109 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $217 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $11 $0 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $207 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +19%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $16 +$1 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $3 $0 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $107 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $221 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $106 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $97 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $120 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $1,587 +$3 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $175 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $169 +$33 +20%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $1,032 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $2,241 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1,025 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Jul 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $170 on July 25? Jul 25 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $101 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $92 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $92 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $101 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $101 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 89¢ $92 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $95 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $95 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $95 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $63 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $34 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $28 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $49 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $46 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $94 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $93 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $94 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $103 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $103 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $33 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $51 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $52 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $96 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $92 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $89 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $89 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $89 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.71 · official $102.40 (match) · 343 history records