Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:21:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
45 0x4519…bc6d world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate51%26W / 25L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$10
other 21% +$2
politics 12% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 18 +0.6% -8.9% 22% 6% -8.3%
≤90d 18 +0.6% -8.9% 22% 6% -8.3%
all 51 +1.3% -8.4% 51% 6% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 6% -8.5%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.3%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.58 per $1 lost it wins $3.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses26 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage468d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $112 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $73 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $45 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $48 −$2 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $38 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $87 +$12 +13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $8 $0 +2%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 04 $2 +$1 +29%
French Open: Sinner vs. Bublik Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 03 $7 $0 +5%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 02 $6 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 31 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? May 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 31? Mar 31 $17 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 30 $16 $0 +1%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Mar 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Arkansas win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $6 +$1 +21%
Will Trump post 220 or more times March 14-21? Mar 20 $10 $0 +1%
Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday? Mar 18 $10 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $53 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $17 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $24 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $53 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $53 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $53 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $53 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $42 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $42 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $6 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.46 · official $53.46 (match) · 150 history records