Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4518…e409 crypto 885 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$211 (-3%) realized −$211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate81%719W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$217
14 days−$217
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$217
world 6% −$8
other 2% −$2
politics 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 840 -2.8% -12.0% 85% 7% -12.4%
≤30d 840 -2.8% -12.0% 85% 7% -12.4%
≤90d 883 -3.0% -12.2% 81% 7% -12.3%
all 884 -3.0% -12.2% 81% 7% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 7% -12.3%
10% -20.6% 3% -20.7%
15% -28.3% 1% -28.4%
20% -35.3% 1% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses719 / 165
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)884 / 885
History coverage96d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 884 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2798 history records