Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4518…6844
crypto · 121 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$482 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$482 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized−$482
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses49 / 57
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)106 / 121
History coverage15d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day45.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 15 History 106 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$38
14 days−$347
30 days−$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 75¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$24 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$14 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 31 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 31 $68 +$30 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 31 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $5 +$9 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 31 $66 −$12 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 31 $46 −$24 -51%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 31 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Darrell Jones win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 30 $8 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 30 $8 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 30 $8 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 30 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 30 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $156 −$138 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 30 $144 +$99 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 30 $83 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 30 $206 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 30 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 30 $50 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $146 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 30 $51 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 30 $30 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 30 $90 +$43 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 30 $92 −$16 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 30 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 30 $71 +$11 +16%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 30 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 30 $62 −$56 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 30 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 30 $92 +$11 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$471
other 1% −$4
sports 0% $0
tech 0% −$5
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -62.1% -65.8% 17% 17% -37.4%
≤30d 106 -23.2% -30.5% 46% 31% -16.3%
≤90d 106 -23.2% -30.5% 46% 31% -16.3%
all 106 -23.2% -30.5% 46% 31% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.5% 31% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -37.2% 23% -24.3%
15% -43.2% 16% -31.6%
20% -48.8% 9% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.66 · official $29.66 (match) · 757 history records