Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
45 0x4517…5f9e sports 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%35W / 58L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$108
14 days−$133
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$274
other 35% +$30
sports 4% +$113
world 1% −$108
crypto 0% −$22
economics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -33.5% -39.9% 0% 0% -37.9%
≤30d 13 -19.0% -26.7% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 46 -1.7% -11.1% 22% 17% -12.7%
all 93 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 33% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 33% -10.6%
10% -17.2% 33% -19.1%
15% -25.2% 33% -27.0%
20% -32.6% 31% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$19 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses35 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage226d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $143 −$12 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$48 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$49 -96%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $50 −$10 -19%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $48 −$12 -25%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,162 −$2 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $795 −$2 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $901 −$5 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $456 −$5 -1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $57 +$1 +3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $65 −$6 -10%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $272 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 07 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $114 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $140 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $130 −$121 -93%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 04 $180 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $310 +$319 +103%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $321 −$2 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 02 $367 −$49 -13%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $120 −$111 -92%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $215 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $321 −$321 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $60 $0 +0%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 12 $9 +$6 +65%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -99%
Penguins vs. Devils Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? Apr 09 $20 +$30 +152%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 09 $24 +$27 +108%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 06 $14 −$14 -98%
Wild vs. Panthers Apr 06 $7 +$5 +75%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Apr 06 $13 +$7 +52%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Apr 06 $21 +$24 +112%
Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-03-18? Mar 26 $22 +$25 +113%
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pacers Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 18 $20 +$27 +133%
T20I Series New Zealand vs South Africa, Women: New Zealand vs South A Mar 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $50 10h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 3d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 3d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $50 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $50 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $40 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $73 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $40 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $8 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $28 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $48 11d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $56 19d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 86¢ $447 23d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 86¢ $59 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.57 · official $50.57 (match) · 342 history records