Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4517…f700 sports 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73,126 (+21%) realized +$68,856 · open +$4,270
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%123W / 142L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$1,314per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$3,797est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5,958now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,512
7 days+$134
14 days+$32,188
30 days+$39,830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$77,375
crypto 9% −$13,639
other 7% +$11,157
finance 1% −$473
culture 0% −$2
world 0% −$10
tech 0% −$103
politics 0% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -11.2% -19.7% 44% 42% -9.3%
≤30d 83 -2.0% -11.3% 47% 45% +11.1%
≤90d 208 -21.2% -28.7% 38% 35% +0.5%
all 265 +6.1% -4.0% 46% 43% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 43% +8.0%
10% -13.2% 40% -2.4%
15% -21.5% 40% -11.8%
20% -29.2% 36% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,626) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,615 vs −$905 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$5,958
Realized+$68,856
Unrealized+$4,270
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses123 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3,797
Open positions2
Markets (closed)265 / 267
History coverage226d
Avg bet$1,314
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 46¢ $900 $3,487 +$2,588 (+288%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 81¢ $788 $2,470 +$1,682 (+213%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $373 +$1,355 +364%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $231 +$143 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $890 −$890 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1,019 −$811 -80%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,021 +$1,185 +59%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $900 +$600 +67%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$57 +57%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2,600 +$2,122 +82%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$333 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,724 +$2,268 +48%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3,753 +$3,752 +100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $411 −$400 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $308 −$300 -97%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $1,560 +$160 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $718 −$700 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $289 −$289 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 16 $410 −$410 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $2,379 −$2,379 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 16 $2,218 −$2,218 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $6,050 +$4,020 +66%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $420 −$420 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,499 +$3,632 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1,137 −$863 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1,040 −$994 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $1,133 +$1,013 +89%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $324 +$809 +250%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 +$17 +22%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 11 $590 −$590 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Jun 11 $900 −$900 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 11 $1,760 −$1,760 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $2,843 −$2,843 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $3,832 −$3,832 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10,172 +$1,864 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $2,997 +$3,145 +105%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $1,019 +$581 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $9,950 +$17,378 +175%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $1,601 +$3,108 +194%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Viola Turini Jun 04 $1,594 +$103 +6%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $1,499 −$1,499 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $600 −$520 -87%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5,069 +$9,758 +192%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 25 $1,260 +$738 +59%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 25 $440 +$338 +77%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $1,831 −$1,824 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 24 $1,880 +$2,120 +113%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 24 $555 +$945 +170%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 24 $290 +$709 +244%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $90 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $411 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $513 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $716 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $909 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 90¢ $130 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 90¢ $250 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 90¢ $439 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $373 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $374 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $231 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $39 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $61 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $17 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $33 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $12 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $82 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $40 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $24 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $14 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,957.87 · official $5,958.17 (match) · 1935 history records