Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:54:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4516…9b59 crypto 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$748 (-2%) realized −$749 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%381W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$14
14 days+$9
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$39
weather 25% −$786
tech 4% +$20
other 2% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.8% -10.2% 85% 31% -12.4%
≤30d 65 -1.3% -10.7% 89% 11% -12.3%
≤90d 182 -2.6% -11.9% 91% 4% -12.1%
all 407 -1.1% -10.5% 94% 2% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -11.2%
10% -19.1% 0% -19.7%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$57 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$749
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses381 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)407 / 408
History coverage250d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 26? No 91¢ 92¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 26 $31 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26? Jun 26 $32 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 25? Jun 26 $25 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $29 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $245 on June 24? Jun 24 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 23? Jun 23 $42 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $43 −$43 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21? Jun 22 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 21 $43 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 20? Jun 21 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $230? Jun 12 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 10 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 9? Jun 09 $49 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 90°F or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $90 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6? Jun 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $85 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $83 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 4? Jun 04 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $87 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $80 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $86 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $82 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $80 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 78¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $32 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $31 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 91¢ $29 24h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $28 25h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? BUY No 90¢ $25 26h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 25? BUY No 79¢ $25 35h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $26 44h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $245 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $26 47h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $245 on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $45 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 23? BUY No 84¢ $42 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY No 84¢ $43 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $41 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $19 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $41 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $43 5d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $37 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.59 · official $36.59 (match) · 1068 history records