Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4516…cc3a sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$162 (+5%) realized −$55 · open +$217
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$41
14 days+$11
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$158
sports 34% −$26
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +19.5% +8.1% 17% 17% -3.9%
≤30d 27 -25.8% -32.9% 19% 19% -14.5%
≤90d 27 -25.8% -32.9% 19% 19% -14.5%
all 27 -25.8% -32.9% 19% 19% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 19% -14.5%
10% -39.3% 19% -22.7%
15% -45.2% 19% -30.1%
20% -50.5% 19% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$19 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1,237
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$217
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 22
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 39
History coverage23d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $810 $1,088 +$279 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $175 $109 −$67 (-38%)
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $309 −$13 -4%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $154 −$6 -4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $156 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 +$80 +325%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$46 +90%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $11 −$10 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $87 −$29 -34%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 +$49 +476%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $102 +$144 +142%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 06 $61 −$60 -98%
Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $114 −$64 -56%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $41 −$7 -18%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 05 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $296 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND South Africa vs. Canada BUY 19¢ $30 26h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will Japan vs. Sweden end i BUY $5 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $103 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $132 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 25¢ $82 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $149 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 12¢ $51 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY 13¢ $26 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $155 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 6d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $31 8d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 8d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 8d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 8d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 8d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 8d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 8d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 9d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,237.08 · official $1,317.08 · 105 history records