Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:28:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4512…e645
crypto · 226 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$142 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$142 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses122 / 104
Open positions0
Markets (closed)226 / 226
History coverage32d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 226 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 79¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 62¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 58¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? Up 18¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 +9.4% -1.1% 60% 53% -12.4%
≤30d 137 +2.3% -7.4% 57% 49% -19.1%
≤90d 226 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 47% -21.0%
all 226 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 47% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 47% -21.0%
10% -24.2% 40% -28.6%
15% -31.5% 19% -35.5%
20% -38.3% 12% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.59 · official $1.33 (match) · 542 history records