Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4512…1857
other · 46 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$12 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$135
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses32 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage13d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%
Chart Positions 4 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$51
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: XCLAN vs Benjis Anglar (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B XCLAN 99¢ 90¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Gaming By Legends (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Noir Verse 99¢ 70¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-06-12? Yes 86¢ 50¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Bohemians Dublin FC win on 2026-06-12? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 68¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dundalk FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +149%
Will Shelbourne FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Waterford FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Bohemians Dublin FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$4 +9%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $85 +$1 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $10 $0 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 $0 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 $0 +5%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 04 $1 $0 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $25 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $45 +$1 +2%
Japan vs. Iceland: Draw at halftime? May 31 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? May 31 $6 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 72% +$45
sports 20% −$44
crypto 7% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 1h
Will Dundalk FC win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Gaming By Legends (BO1) - ROG Journey Gr BUY Noir Verse 99¢ $20 1h
Will Shelbourne FC win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 56¢ $15 2h
Will Waterford FC win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: XCLAN vs Benjis Anglar (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B BUY XCLAN 99¢ $20 2h
Will Dundalk FC win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3h
Will Bohemians Dublin FC win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3h
Will Waterford FC win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3h
Will Shelbourne FC win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 5h
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 32h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 94¢ $87 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.7% -8.9% 79% 42% -2.2%
≤30d 42 -3.4% -12.6% 76% 36% -6.5%
≤90d 42 -3.4% -12.6% 76% 36% -6.5%
all 42 -3.4% -12.6% 76% 36% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 36% -6.5%
10% -21.0% 24% -15.5%
15% -28.6% 14% -23.6%
20% -35.6% 5% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.27 · official $135.27 (match) · 104 history records