Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:05:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4512…af71 politics 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$14
politics 34% −$11
sports 8% −$33
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 115 -2.6% -11.8% 5% 3% -9.5%
all 128 -4.4% -13.5% 5% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.8% 3% -18.4%
15% -29.3% 2% -26.3%
20% -36.2% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×10.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 121
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage117d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $209 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $165 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $344 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $160 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $185 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $374 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $142 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $181 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $146 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $121 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $125 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $164 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $361 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $145 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $159 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $136 −$1 -1%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 03 $124 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $166 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $152 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $191 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $321 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $149 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $406 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $157 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $161 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $168 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $359 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $387 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $191 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $357 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $183 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $352 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 19h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $24 19h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 31h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $29 31h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 10d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $18 10d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 13d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 15d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $165 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $165 27d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $161 28d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $161 29d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $179 29d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $179 30d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $146 30d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $146 31d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $160 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 373 history records