Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4511…d971 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$2
politics 18% $0
world 18% −$1
economics 9% $0
crypto 8% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 5 -3.4% -12.6% 40% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 5 -3.4% -12.6% 40% 0% -10.8%
all 50 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.3%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage372d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 80¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $26 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $26 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $28 −$2 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $28 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $2 $0 -13%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $2 $0 -3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 17 $26 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $14 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Jul 16 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 15 $2 $0 -14%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 14 $1 $0 +14%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win 3-0? Jul 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Jul 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%? Jul 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $22 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $24 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 21 $24 $0 +1%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 18 $23 +$2 +7%
Israel strike on Iran on June 18? Jun 18 $23 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20? Jun 17 $22 +$1 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 16 $22 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $27 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $22 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $4 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $26 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $23 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $23 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $3 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $21 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $7 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $28 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $5 340d
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 340d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 340d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 340d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 340d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 340d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? BUY Yes 97¢ $14 341d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $14 341d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $14 341d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? SELL No 97¢ $14 341d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $14 341d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.40 · official $26.40 (match) · 135 history records