Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:04:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x450e…4fdd sports 392 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$204 (+0%) realized +$1,002 · open −$798
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%245W / 179L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day110.7pace
Fees−$964est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$4,350
crypto 24% +$140
other 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -15.3% -23.4% 37% 35% -15.9%
≤30d 424 +5.8% -4.3% 58% 37% -6.9%
≤90d 424 +5.8% -4.3% 58% 37% -6.9%
all 424 +5.8% -4.3% 58% 37% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 37% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 33% -15.8%
15% -21.8% 30% -24.0%
20% -29.5% 20% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$184 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$1,060
Realized+$1,002
Unrealized−$798
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses245 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$964
Open positions3
Markets (closed)424 / 392
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$268
Trades / day110.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 93¢ 90¢ $966 $941 −$25 (-3%)
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $113 $117 +$4 (+3%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Team Spirit 67¢ 0¢ $777 $1 −$777 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? Jun 25 $0 +$12 +6955%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 4°C on May 11? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 11? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on May 13? Jun 25 $221 −$221 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 10? Jun 25 $112 −$212 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10PM ET Jun 25 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7AM ET Jun 25 $66 −$66 -100%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P Jun 25 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9PM ET Jun 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 13? Jun 25 $264 −$264 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $79 +$33 +42%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $248 +$113 +45%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $31 +$2 +6%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $465 +$221 +48%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $153 −$151 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $103 +$103 +100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $139 +$153 +110%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $512 +$105 +20%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $247 −$244 -99%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $249 +$119 +48%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $101 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $173 +$327 +189%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $347 +$189 +54%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $277 +$139 +50%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $87 +$103 +117%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $177 −$175 -99%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $122 −$120 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $149 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $62 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $128 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $103 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $128 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $103 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 68¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 68¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Carstensz 100¢ $112 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 76¢ $50 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 63¢ $4 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 62¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 62¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 61¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 62¢ $19 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner SELL Carstensz 100¢ $361 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 67¢ $8 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 67¢ $11 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 67¢ $7 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 67¢ $3 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 67¢ $11 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 67¢ $19 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 68¢ $39 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 67¢ $22 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 67¢ $8 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 63¢ $13 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 71¢ $36 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 71¢ $19 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 71¢ $9 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,059.65 · official $1,059.07 (match) · 3500 history records