Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:00:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x450d…5103 politics 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$12
politics 44% −$14
sports 4% −$15
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 117 +3.7% -6.2% 5% 4% -9.6%
all 129 +6.0% -4.1% 7% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 5% -9.7%
10% -13.3% 4% -18.3%
15% -21.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -29.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×9.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage117d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $193 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $375 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $172 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $191 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $188 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $193 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $347 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $381 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $161 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $146 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $193 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $332 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $158 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $145 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $374 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $172 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $336 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $190 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $175 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $159 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $125 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $156 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 04 $132 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $263 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $453 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $151 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $272 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $153 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $177 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 3h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 3h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 11h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 17h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 22h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 22h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 27h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $32 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $26 10d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $26 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $24 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $24 14d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 15d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 16d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 16d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 21d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $172 21d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $172 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $191 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $191 28d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 404 history records