Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x450a…99a9 politics 204 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%26W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$5
sports 24% −$6
other 19% −$5
crypto 14% −$4
economics 5% −$2
finance 2% $0
culture 2% $0
world 1% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -0.4% -9.9% 13% 0% -9.8%
all 203 -0.3% -9.8% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses26 / 177
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)203 / 204
History coverage167d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $110 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $27 −$1 -5%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 08 $90 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 07 $24 $0 -2%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $53 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $95 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $67 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $54 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $179 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $229 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 04 $25 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 04 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $19 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $193 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $31 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $24 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $168 $0 -0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $30 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Apr 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 27 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 24 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $68 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $112 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $95 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $74 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $96 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $125 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $132 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $99 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $16 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $16 7d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $16 20d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $16 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 34d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $23 44d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $23 44d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 95¢ $23 44d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $24 44d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 44d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $17 44d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 44d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 45d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $26 45d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $26 45d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 45d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 45d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $24 45d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $24 45d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $22 45d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $14 46d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $7 46d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 46d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $23 46d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $30 46d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $30 46d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $19 46d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $19 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.83 · official $26.83 (match) · 828 history records