Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x450a…b4ed
sports · 154 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$41 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$41 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 8 History 146 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$20
14 days−$107
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Caty McNally 92¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage ex-RUBY 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) United States 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Matt Fulmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 60¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 78¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 76¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 16¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 60¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 60¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 48¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 40¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 60¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 60¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St Jun 12 $5 −$2 -31%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will PPI YoY be between 4.0% and 4.9% in May? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2 Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $7 −$5 -67%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $7 −$5 -76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $7 $0 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $7 +$2 +35%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $7 −$3 -42%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $7 +$2 +31%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $7 $0 +2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $7 +$1 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 09 $7 +$1 +11%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 09 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 09 $7 +$9 +126%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 09 $7 +$1 +12%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 09 $7 +$7 +95%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 08 $7 −$3 -40%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $7 −$2 -33%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $7 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$7 +112%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $7 +$4 +58%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $7 +$1 +15%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 08 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$7 +127%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $7 +$6 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $6 +$7 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $7 +$6 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$5 +66%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 07 $7 +$2 +33%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $7 +$9 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $8 +$5 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $8 +$5 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 07 $0 $0 -93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $7 −$1 -12%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $7 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$22
crypto 22% −$19
other 3% $0
politics 3% +$1
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 96¢ $5 34m
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 92¢ $5 45m
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St SELL Cheeseburger 68¢ $3 1h
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St BUY Cheeseburger 96¢ $5 1h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) SELL Bigetron by Vitality 89¢ $5 3h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) BUY Bigetron by Vitality 97¢ $5 3h
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) BUY United States 98¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 3 Czechia? BUY No 98¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? BUY No 98¢ $5 9h
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May? BUY No 98¢ $5 45h
Will PPI YoY be between 4.0% and 4.9% in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 2d
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova SELL Linda Fruhvirtova 20¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 18¢ $2 2d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2 BUY Yes 98¢ $5 3d
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 95¢ $5 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 90¢ $7 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 91¢ $7 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $4 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 73¢ $7 3d
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 57¢ $7 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 78¢ $7 3d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 70¢ $7 3d
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar BUY No 98¢ $5 3d
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary BUY No 98¢ $5 3d
Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prim BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will Matt Fulmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 97¢ $7 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 91¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 42% -3.3%
≤30d 146 -11.1% -19.6% 62% 39% -13.2%
≤90d 146 -11.1% -19.6% 62% 39% -13.2%
all 146 -11.1% -19.6% 62% 39% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 39% -13.2%
10% -27.3% 29% -21.5%
15% -34.3% 21% -29.1%
20% -40.7% 18% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.83 · official $40.83 (match) · 307 history records