Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:03:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

45 0x4507…c780 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$790 (+55%) realized +$872 · open −$82

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip

Net edge+38%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate64%7W / 4L

Drawdown7%max

Avg bet$89per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$22est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$15

7 days−$15

14 days+$792

30 days+$872

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+38.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+10.2%	-0.3%	60%	60%	-18.5%
≤30d	11	+52.5%	+38.0%	64%	64%	+51.2%
≤90d	11	+52.5%	+38.0%	64%	64%	+51.2%
all	11	+52.5%	+38.0%	64%	64%	+51.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+38.0%	64%	+51.2%
10%	+24.8%	55%	+36.7%
15%	+12.7%	55%	+23.5%
20%	+1.7%	55%	+11.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 83% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +67% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +52% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$140 vs −$28 · ×5.05 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.84 per $1 lost it wins $8.84

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage

Net worth$43

Realized+$872

Unrealized−$82

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses7 / 4

Est. fees paid−$22

Open positions5

Markets (closed)11 / 16

History coverage22d

Avg bet$89

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown7%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	Yes	38¢	8¢	$100	$20	−$80 (-80%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	5¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+16%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-19%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	3¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-24%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$20	+$27	+134%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$10	+$11	+105%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$60	+$7	+12%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Jun 14	$880	+$817	+93%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$49	+$41	+83%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Jun 09	$116	−$46	-39%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Jun 09	$42	−$6	-14%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 06	$51	+$49	+96%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$10	+$31	+308%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$48	1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$20	12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$10	21h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	21h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5	BUY Over	44¢	$51	46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$60	2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	BUY Yes	42¢	$52	5d
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	5d
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	5d
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	5d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	6d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	BUY Yes	35¢	$52	6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,243	7d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	SELL Yes	100¢	$454	7d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	58¢	$99	10d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	10d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	61¢	$90	10d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	54¢	$49	11d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	48¢	$127	12d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	SELL Yes	23¢	$71	12d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	SELL Yes	16¢	$36	12d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	41¢	$31	12d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	18¢	$42	15d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	37¢	$98	15d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	48¢	$341	15d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	35¢	$18	15d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	51¢	$81	15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	80¢	$100	15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.06 · official $43.06 (match) · 40 history records