Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4506…c3b0 sports 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%7W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$3
politics 25% −$4
other 20% −$4
crypto 10% −$4
culture 7% −$2
economics 5% −$1
tech 4% −$1
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -2.7% -12.0% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 3 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 163 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses7 / 156
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage171d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 31 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 18 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $182 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 20 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $308 −$1 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $127 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $119 −$1 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $113 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $226 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $118 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $127 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $246 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $346 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 18 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $250 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $25 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 13d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $51 25d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $51 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $45 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $46 38d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $1 124d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $50 124d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $1 125d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $1 125d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $1 125d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 96¢ $2 125d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 96¢ $2 125d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $50 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? SELL No 98¢ $47 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $47 125d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $11 125d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 93¢ $33 125d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $11 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL No 95¢ $15 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 95¢ $15 125d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 93¢ $19 125d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 93¢ $52 125d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $46 125d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $46 125d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 94¢ $45 125d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 96¢ $2 126d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $5 126d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $2 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.33 · official $49.33 (match) · 628 history records