Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4503…fb89 other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate34%26W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$15
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$19
world 24% +$14
sports 20% −$31
politics 13% +$2
culture 5% $0
finance 2% +$3
economics 2% $0
tech 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 24 +2.3% -7.5% 50% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 38 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 5% -9.5%
all 76 -3.1% -12.3% 34% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 4% -9.5%
10% -20.7% 1% -18.1%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.1%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses26 / 50
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage262d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $350 +$7 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $69 +$2 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $115 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $126 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $98 +$8 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $224 −$3 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $105 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $104 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $13 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $96 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $147 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $61 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $71 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $89 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $53 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $106 −$3 -3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $7 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $116 +$3 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $76 +$11 +14%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $92 −$1 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $74 −$5 -6%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $631 +$3 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $32 −$1 -4%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $184 +$10 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $716 −$20 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $49 +$3 +6%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $17 −$6 -38%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $101 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $121 $0 +0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 16 $30 −$8 -27%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $188 +$2 +1%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $37 −$2 -6%
Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 14 $176 −$3 -2%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5 Mar 14 $179 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $168 +$29 +17%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 12 $168 $0 -0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 11 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 10 $169 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $19 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $98 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $114 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $68 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $69 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $115 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $115 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $126 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $126 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $38 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $4 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 345 history records