Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44fe…301d other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$254 (-3%) realized −$258 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate60%75W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$72
14 days+$135
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$234
weather 26% −$32
other 18% +$87
world 18% −$79
politics 4% +$3
tech 3% −$58
culture 2% +$2
finance 2% −$7
crypto 0% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +19.7% +8.3% 60% 24% +0.7%
≤30d 108 +17.5% +6.3% 59% 9% -9.8%
≤90d 124 +14.5% +3.6% 60% 8% -12.4%
all 124 +14.5% +3.6% 60% 8% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 8% -12.4%
10% -6.3% 7% -20.8%
15% -15.4% 6% -28.5%
20% -23.7% 6% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized−$258
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses75 / 49
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions9
Markets (closed)124 / 133
History coverage35d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on June 29? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 29? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 95¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 69¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+20%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? No 70¢ 66¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Egypt? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Over 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $2 $0 -24%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $15 +$20 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $7 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? Jun 29 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $71 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $89 +$2 +2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $7 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 27? Jun 28 $31 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $3 +$17 +574%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 27 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $78 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -24%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26? Jun 26 $95 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 $0 -31%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $25 +$4 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $9 +$29 +331%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -24%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $47 +$4 +8%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 +$47 +1521%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +79%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 +$48 +1845%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 -14%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $4 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 $0 -19%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 $0 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 4¢ $2 59m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 98¢ $59 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 97¢ $58 5h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 17¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 20¢ $7 8h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $55 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL No 78¢ $9 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 62¢ $7 27h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $71 31h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $89 34h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 8¢ $1 44h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 48¢ $4 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 37¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $31 2d
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? BUY No 70¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $54 2d
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 58¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 14¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $78 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $95 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 4¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.37 · official $237.42 (match) · 256 history records