Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x44fe…badf crypto 45 markets active 4d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$44 (+7%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate80%36W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$27
sports 3% +$7
other 2% $0
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +2.4% -7.4% 77% 55% -11.2%
≤30d 45 +6.8% -3.3% 80% 56% -4.9%
≤90d 45 +6.8% -3.3% 80% 56% -4.9%
all 45 +6.8% -3.3% 80% 56% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 56% -4.9%
10% -12.6% 33% -14.0%
15% -21.0% 22% -22.3%
20% -28.8% 11% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses36 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage4d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$5 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $35 −$32 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $8 −$2 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $22 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $12 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $28 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records