Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
44 0x44fb…74ce crypto 2033 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (190 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$1,455 (-19%) realized −$1,456 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%927W / 582L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day189.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,704
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (190 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 464 -6.9% -15.8% 48% 48% -18.1%
≤30d 1509 +23.4% +11.6% 61% 60% +7.9%
≤90d 1509 +23.4% +11.6% 61% 60% +7.9%
all 1509 +23.4% +11.6% 61% 60% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover189.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.6% 60% +7.9%
10% ← realistic here +0.9% 60% -2.4%
15% -8.8% 60% -11.9%
20% -17.8% 54% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,456
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses927 / 582
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1509 / 2033
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day189.9
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1509 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 57¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.26 · official $2.98 · 3500 history records