Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
44 0x44f9…49a9 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$83 (-13%) realized −$89 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$96
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$10
other 34% −$92
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -31.6% -38.1% 33% 33% -81.9%
≤30d 6 -31.6% -38.1% 33% 33% -81.9%
≤90d 7 -41.4% -47.0% 29% 29% -93.7%
all 8 -20.7% -28.3% 38% 38% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 38% -23.9%
10% -35.2% 38% -31.2%
15% -41.4% 25% -37.8%
20% -47.2% 25% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$64 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage110d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$91 -89%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -63%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$4 -60%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Apr 03 $221 −$221 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 07 $187 +$231 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.62 · official $103.12 · 21 history records