Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44f9…992a other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-10%) realized −$195 · open +$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%6W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$96
sports 9% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -34.5% -40.7% 17% 17% -20.0%
≤30d 36 -34.5% -40.7% 17% 17% -20.0%
≤90d 36 -34.5% -40.7% 17% 17% -20.0%
all 36 -34.5% -40.7% 17% 17% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.7% 17% -20.0%
10% -46.4% 17% -27.7%
15% -51.6% 17% -34.7%
20% -56.3% 17% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$10 · ×4.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage5d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ goals Yes 21¢ 49¢ $107 $253 +$146 (+136%)
Ali Olwan: 1+ goals Yes 22¢ 18¢ $76 $60 −$15 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $43 −$43 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $30 −$29 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $92 +$189 +206%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 22 $70 −$68 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Emam Ashour: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 +$14 +134%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 +$28 +550%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$12 +234%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$13 +413%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$6 +121%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ali Olwan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $77 1h
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $110 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 47¢ $43 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $281 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $8 17h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $92 17h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $62 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 28h
Emam Ashour: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $5 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 29h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 36h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 36h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 38h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 38h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 38h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 38h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 38h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.00 · official $313.00 (match) · 49 history records