Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44f8…f9e7 politics 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$1
politics 21% −$1
tech 18% $0
sports 18% $0
world 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 21 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage176d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $84 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 18 $84 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $85 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $340 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $174 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $174 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $174 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $174 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 03 $174 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $174 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $173 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 01 $164 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $9 $0 -1%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 04 $169 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 02 $170 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 30 $166 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $84 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 15h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $84 12d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $84 12d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $84 25d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $84 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $42 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $42 36d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $84 42d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 42d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 50d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 51d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $86 67d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $87 67d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $174 86d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $174 87d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $174 93d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $174 94d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $174 98d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $24 98d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $129 98d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $20 98d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $174 100d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $174 101d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 100¢ $174 103d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $174 103d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $174 112d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $82 114d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $92 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records