Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x44f8…b383
other · 128 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$18 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$1
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage91d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 2 History 126 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$11
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 65¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 17¢ 57¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+238%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Yes 51¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner Sebastian Ofner $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? No $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Christian Pulisic score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8 −$5 -58%
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group S Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 12 $16 $0 -2%
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $21 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $11 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 03 $75 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $37 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $20 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $10 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $72 +$20 +28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 27 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $33 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 11 $1 $0 -17%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 09 $1 $0 -8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner May 09 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 27 $7 $0 -4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 26 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $180 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $184 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $3 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% +$7
world 18% −$5
politics 17% −$5
sports 13% −$6
economics 8% −$1
finance 6% −$2
crypto 5% −$4
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Christian Pulisic score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2h
Will Christian Pulisic score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $14 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 2h
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 53¢ $18 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $19 3h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 76¢ $4 3h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $4 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 66¢ $22 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 67¢ $23 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA SELL Yes 29¢ $2 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 29¢ $2 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $11 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $11 4h
Will Uruguay be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group S SELL Yes 13¢ $3 4h
Will Uruguay be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group S BUY Yes 14¢ $3 5h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 5h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $3 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $3 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $4 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $19 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $4 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $19 5h
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -6.1% -15.0% 6% 0% -15.4%
≤30d 35 +50.9% +36.5% 6% 3% -10.4%
≤90d 119 +12.7% +2.0% 2% 1% -9.7%
all 126 +12.0% +1.3% 2% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 1% -9.7%
10% -8.4% 1% -18.4%
15% -17.2% 1% -26.3%
20% -25.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.66 (match) · 1273 history records