Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
44 0x44f8…b30a crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+1%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%34W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$12
other 29% −$12
sports 2% +$15
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 47% -19.1%
≤30d 15 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 47% -19.1%
≤90d 23 +10.5% -0.0% 52% 52% -8.1%
all 61 +2.3% -7.5% 56% 41% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 41% -9.8%
10% -16.3% 39% -18.4%
15% -24.4% 39% -26.3%
20% -31.8% 38% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$38 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses34 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage548d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$24 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$35 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$17 +64%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$16 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$10 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$11 +84%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-03? May 11 $1 +$5 +510%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Anna Bondar May 03 $20 +$9 +43%
Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Coco Gauff Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Jazz Apr 15 $20 +$4 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Macy Chiasson vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Mar 22 $22 +$13 +59%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 22 $50 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 24 $120 +$112 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 24 $120 −$118 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 24 $50 +$45 +89%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 24 $50 +$46 +91%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 24 $50 +$46 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 24 $50 +$46 +92%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 24 $50 +$47 +93%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 24 $70 +$61 +87%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 24 $130 +$109 +84%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 24 $130 +$109 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 24 $50 +$48 +97%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Feb 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Feb 24 $9 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Feb 24 $50 +$47 +93%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Feb 24 $50 +$47 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Feb 24 $70 +$65 +93%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 24 $78 −$77 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Feb 24 $70 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 24 $60 −$59 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 24 $60 −$59 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 24 $60 −$59 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Feb 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Feb 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Dec 10 $106 −$106 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $44 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $43 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records