Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
44 0x44f8…3d88 sports 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-4%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%67W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$50
world 14% +$3
other 9% −$6
crypto 6% −$9
culture 5% +$4
economics 1% −$1
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 55 -10.2% -18.8% 55% 51% -9.1%
all 159 -19.3% -27.0% 42% 37% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 37% -14.9%
10% -34.0% 25% -23.1%
15% -40.3% 21% -30.5%
20% -46.2% 16% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses67 / 92
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)159 / 162
History coverage157d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebeka Masarova May 06 $5 $0 -2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapova May 06 $10 +$2 +21%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aleksandar Vukic vs Patrick Kypson May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar May 06 $47 −$9 -19%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Peyton Stearns vs Janice Tjen May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Sara Bejlek May 06 $10 −$5 -49%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Leolia Jeanjean vs Beatriz Haddad Maia May 06 $12 +$5 +44%
Francavilla: Max Schoenhaus vs Zdenek Kolar May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marco Trungelliti vs Zachary Svajda May 06 $5 +$2 +46%
Jiujiang: Mei Yamaguchi vs Hayu Kinoshita May 06 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 +$3 +59%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 +$4 +72%
Jiujiang: Lizette Cabrera vs Zongyu Li May 06 $5 −$2 -42%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Viktoria Morvayova May 06 $4 −$3 -75%
Jiujiang: Heather Watson vs Kyoka Okamura May 06 $2 −$1 -57%
Brazzaville: Brandon Perez vs Younes Laaroussi May 06 $1 +$1 +62%
Santos: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Facundo Mena May 05 $7 −$3 -48%
Brazzaville: Jody Maginley vs Matteo Covato May 05 $15 +$1 +3%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martina Trevisan vs Talia Gibson May 05 $20 −$10 -49%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Mayar Sherif vs Tamara Kor May 05 $5 −$4 -84%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Zakharova vs Dayana Yastremska May 05 $10 +$5 +52%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Lucia Bronzetti May 05 $5 +$3 +53%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Noemi Basiletti vs Daria S May 05 $10 +$9 +93%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Bondar vs Qinwen Zheng May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Leolia May 05 $10 +$3 +34%
Wuxi: Hayato Matsuoka vs Maximus Jones May 05 $15 +$8 +55%
Wuxi: Alex Bolt vs Fajing Sun May 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Sofya Lansere May 05 $4 −$4 -89%
Wuxi: Jason Jung vs Andre Ilagan May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Jiujiang: Anastasia Zolotareva vs Mei Yamaguchi May 05 $5 +$2 +44%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Moyuka May 04 $7 +$2 +29%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Pierluig May 04 $5 +$3 +60%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaime Fa May 04 $5 +$3 +62%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Juan Martin vs Titouan Dro May 04 $10 +$2 +18%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Alina Korneeva vs Ella Sei May 04 $6 −$5 -83%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 4? May 04 $5 −$4 -80%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Hugo De May 04 $15 +$3 +20%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Leolia Jeanjean vs Diane P May 04 $20 +$5 +27%
Jiujiang: Zongyu Li vs Wushuang Zheng May 04 $10 +$4 +36%
Jiujiang: En-Shuo Liang vs Yufei Ren May 04 $10 +$2 +16%
Jiujiang: Cody Wong vs Xinxin Yao May 04 $4 +$1 +20%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Jiajing Lu May 04 $14 +$2 +12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals May 04 $1 $0 +44%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs May 04 $3 $0 +7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies May 04 $5 +$2 +40%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 04 $5 +$2 +44%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 03 $5 +$3 +54%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 03 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebeka Masarova SELL Oksana Selekhmeteva 31¢ $2 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebeka Masarova SELL Oksana Selekhmeteva 31¢ $3 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Oksana Selekhmeteva 31¢ $5 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapova SELL Dalma Galfi 39¢ $12 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Dalma Galfi 31¢ $10 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aleksandar Vukic vs Patrick Kypson SELL Patrick Kypson 1¢ $0 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aleksandar Vukic vs Patrick Kypson BUY Patrick Kypson 46¢ $10 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar SELL Matteo Arnaldi 100¢ $32 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar BUY Matteo Arnaldi 94¢ $30 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar SELL Jaume Munar 6¢ $1 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar BUY Jaume Munar 48¢ $10 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar SELL Matteo Arnaldi 51¢ $5 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar BUY Matteo Arnaldi 65¢ $7 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Peyton Stearns vs Janice Tjen BUY Janice Tjen 16¢ $2 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Sara Bejlek BUY Sara Bejlek 43¢ $5 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Sara Bejlek SELL Laura Siegemund 56¢ $6 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Sara Bejlek BUY Laura Siegemund 48¢ $5 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Leolia Jeanjean vs Beatriz Haddad Maia SELL Leolia Jeanjean 100¢ $17 40d
Francavilla: Max Schoenhaus vs Zdenek Kolar BUY Zdenek Kolar 32¢ $3 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marco Trungelliti vs Zachary Svajda SELL Zachary Svajda 41¢ $7 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marco Trungelliti vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 27¢ $5 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Leolia Jeanjean vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Leolia Jeanjean 69¢ $7 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Leolia Jeanjean vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Leolia Jeanjean 68¢ $5 40d
Jiujiang: Mei Yamaguchi vs Hayu Kinoshita SELL Hayu Kinoshita 100¢ $8 40d
Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 40d
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 40d
Jiujiang: Mei Yamaguchi vs Hayu Kinoshita BUY Hayu Kinoshita 65¢ $5 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.04 · official $19.04 (match) · 415 history records