Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44f7…4aa8 crypto 24 markets active 6d ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$67 (-1%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$1
finance 24% $0
world 24% +$5
tech 11% +$1
sports 4% −$105
crypto 1% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -8.6% -17.3% 62% 8% -10.8%
all 24 +7.7% -2.6% 62% 33% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 33% -10.4%
10% -11.9% 33% -19.0%
15% -20.4% 33% -26.8%
20% -28.2% 33% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$788) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$26 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage117d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 11 $111 −$111 -100%
Coventry City FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $107 +$91 +85%
Oilers vs. Utah: O/U 6.5 Mar 26 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 4% and Mar 23 $841 +$1 +0%
Will Denmark join the Board of Peace? Mar 23 $770 +$1 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of March? Mar 23 $759 +$1 +0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 23 $864 +$3 +0%
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1? Mar 23 $853 −$1 -0%
Military action against Iran ends by March 22, 2026? Mar 23 $836 +$2 +0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Mar 23 $835 +$3 +0%
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 23 $52 +$2 +3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Mar 23 $788 −$4 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6AM ET Mar 01 $8 +$8 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 10AM ET Mar 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 01 $6 +$6 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 2AM ET Feb 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 6AM ET Feb 25 $9 +$9 +100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 11AM ET Feb 25 $12 +$12 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 20 $5 +$5 +96%
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 4PM ET Feb 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 12PM ET Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Feb 17 $9 +$9 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 8AM ET Feb 17 $12 +$12 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Lightning vs. Canadiens BUY Lightning 55¢ $111 70d
Coventry City FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $107 75d
Oilers vs. Utah: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 49¢ $79 85d
Oilers vs. Utah: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 85d
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 4% and SELL No 99¢ $72 86d
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 4% and SELL No 99¢ $770 86d
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 4% and BUY No 99¢ $841 86d
Will Denmark join the Board of Peace? SELL No 99¢ $771 86d
Will Denmark join the Board of Peace? BUY No 99¢ $770 86d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of March? SELL No 99¢ $760 86d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of March? BUY No 99¢ $759 86d
Will the Florida Panthers win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 99¢ $867 86d
Will the Florida Panthers win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 99¢ $864 86d
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1? SELL No 96¢ $839 86d
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1? SELL No 96¢ $13 86d
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1? BUY No 96¢ $853 86d
Military action against Iran ends by March 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $837 86d
Military action against Iran ends by March 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $836 86d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $838 86d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $835 86d
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL Yes $53 86d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $784 86d
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY Yes $52 86d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? BUY No 99¢ $788 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 108d
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 110d
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 2AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records