Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x44f6…2c1e other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+3%) realized +$95 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%51W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$180
14 days+$111
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$115
sports 33% −$126
world 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +30.6% +18.1% 67% 67% +17.3%
≤30d 22 +15.2% +4.2% 59% 59% +3.1%
≤90d 48 +17.8% +6.6% 65% 65% +1.3%
all 92 +0.1% -9.4% 55% 55% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 55% -8.0%
10% -18.1% 55% -16.8%
15% -26.0% 55% -24.8%
20% -33.2% 49% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$24 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$95
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses51 / 41
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage167d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 54¢ 54¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 43¢ 16¢ $44 $17 −$27 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $70 −$69 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $56 +$61 +109%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $65 +$71 +109%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$57 +140%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $28 +$34 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$13 +52%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $31 −$31 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $56 +$32 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 $0 -1%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $24 +$10 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $26 +$13 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $39 +$33 +86%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $39 +$36 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $38 −$37 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $39 −$38 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $39 −$38 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 24 $26 +$21 +83%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 24 $29 +$24 +83%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 24 $33 +$36 +109%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 16 $21 +$12 +57%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 16 $21 +$13 +62%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 16 $21 +$17 +79%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 16 $28 +$15 +52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 10 $21 +$22 +105%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? May 09 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 09 $25 +$23 +90%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) May 03 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? May 02 $18 +$14 +76%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 02 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 02 $22 +$16 +70%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? May 02 $18 +$23 +129%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $16 +$13 +79%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Apr 18 $20 +$14 +72%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 18 $22 +$15 +70%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) Apr 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 08 $22 −$22 -99%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $21 +$13 +59%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 22 $25 +$13 +52%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 22 $25 +$20 +80%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $37 44m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $45 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $70 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $56 29h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $56 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $65 32h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $28 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $31 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $30 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $25 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $26 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $24 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $26 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 66¢ $26 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $31 7d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $38 8d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $39 26d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $39 26d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $39 26d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $39 26d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 33d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 54¢ $29 33d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $26 34d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 66¢ $30 35d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) BUY West Ham United FC 65¢ $28 40d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 63¢ $21 40d
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) BUY Burnley FC 61¢ $21 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.05 · official $53.05 (match) · 153 history records