Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x44f6…663f sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$210 (+4%) realized +$405 · open −$195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate69%24W / 11L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$210
7 days−$197
14 days−$197
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$251
other 45% +$346
politics 4% +$8
crypto 2% −$103
world 2% +$10
culture 1% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -11.3% -19.8% 50% 50% -18.2%
≤30d 19 -1.1% -10.5% 58% 58% -6.0%
≤90d 31 +3.1% -6.7% 68% 61% -3.8%
all 35 +6.4% -3.8% 69% 60% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 60% -4.8%
10% -13.0% 46% -14.0%
15% -21.4% 37% -22.3%
20% -29.1% 26% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$112 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$405
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses24 / 11
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage148d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 78¢ 14¢ $150 $26 −$124 (-83%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 6¢ $81 $11 −$70 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $158 +$30 +19%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $123 +$71 +58%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $111 −$111 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $179 +$83 +46%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $150 +$57 +38%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $216 +$80 +37%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $185 −$149 -81%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $94 −$2 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $91 +$58 +64%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $160 +$259 +162%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $236 −$236 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $103 +$92 +89%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $192 +$98 +51%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-27? May 30 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $245 +$206 +84%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $75 +$9 +12%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 18 $201 +$55 +27%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $100 +$31 +31%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $112 +$14 +12%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $202 −$156 -78%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $209 +$16 +8%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $67 +$44 +65%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $51 −$35 -69%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $188 +$58 +31%
Will CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Coquimbo Unido end in a draw? May 03 $121 +$13 +11%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $187 +$121 +64%
Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $91 +$10 +11%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 05 $174 +$8 +4%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $20 +$35 +177%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 5? Feb 05 $103 −$103 -100%
AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 Jan 22 $56 +$23 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $152 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $188 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $158 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $194 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $123 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $83 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $111 19h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $262 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $179 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $207 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $150 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $216 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Algeria 15¢ $36 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 75¢ $185 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $92 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $94 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 55¢ $51 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $91 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $122 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $165 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $419 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $236 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $160 5d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $195 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $103 20d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $290 20d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $82 20d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 67¢ $110 20d
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 54¢ $102 22d
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $450 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.84 · official $36.84 (match) · 82 history records