Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44f5…63ac crypto 632 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$274 (-6%) realized −$848 · open +$574
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%256W / 534L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day133.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,754now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$375
7 days−$262
14 days−$1,020
30 days−$1,105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$844
other 21% +$571
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 -69.1% -72.1% 15% 11% -27.9%
≤30d 790 -31.7% -38.2% 32% 28% -30.3%
≤90d 790 -31.7% -38.2% 32% 28% -30.3%
all 790 -31.7% -38.2% 32% 28% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.2% 28% -30.3%
10% ← realistic here -44.2% 23% -37.0%
15% -49.6% 19% -43.1%
20% -54.5% 16% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1,754
Realized−$848
Unrealized+$574
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses256 / 534
Open positions3
Markets (closed)790 / 632
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day133.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 790 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $1,169 $1,746 +$577 (+49%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 35¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 51¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 50¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 474 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,754.34 · official $1,754.34 (match) · 3500 history records