Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44f3…975c other 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$461 (+8%) realized +$567 · open −$106
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate80%108W / 27L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$750now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days+$220
14 days+$217
30 days+$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$136
politics 20% −$24
culture 1% $0
world 1% +$57
sports 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +1.8% -7.9% 85% 17% -4.1%
≤30d 134 +6.8% -3.4% 81% 19% -2.8%
≤90d 135 +6.0% -4.1% 80% 19% -2.8%
all 135 +6.0% -4.1% 80% 19% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 19% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 15% -12.1%
15% -21.7% 10% -20.6%
20% -29.4% 7% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$750
Realized+$567
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses108 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions43
Markets (closed)135 / 179
History coverage37d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 53¢ 59¢ $234 $260 +$26 (+11%)
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 62¢ 58¢ $171 $161 −$11 (-6%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $75 $57 −$17 (-23%)
Abdallah Al Fakhori: 1+ goals No 99¢ 78¢ $71 $57 −$15 (-21%)
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No $42 $36 −$6 (-15%)
Mohammad Shararah: 2+ goals No 99¢ 50¢ $54 $27 −$27 (-49%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 15¢ 12¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-18%)
Abdallah Al Fakhori: 2+ goals No 99¢ 50¢ $36 $18 −$18 (-50%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 20¢ 18¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals No 99¢ 50¢ $25 $12 −$12 (-49%)
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 90¢ 90¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $7 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Odeh Fakhoury: 2+ goals No 99¢ 50¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-49%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will J Balvin perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$1 (+31%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ goals Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ goals Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ goals Jun 17 $64 +$1 +1%
Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ goals Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Riyad Mahrez: 2+ goals Jun 17 $64 +$1 +1%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 +$8 +57%
Adil Boulbina: 3+ goals Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $107 $0 +0%
Cristian Romero: 2+ goals Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$15 -73%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $11 −$10 -98%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Kristian Thorstvedt: 3+ goals Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Morten Thorsby: 2+ goals Jun 17 $63 +$1 +1%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Patrick Berg: 2+ goals Jun 17 $63 +$1 +1%
Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals Jun 17 $63 +$1 +1%
Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ goals Jun 17 $63 +$1 +1%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 17 $133 +$120 +91%
Ali Yousif: 2+ goals Jun 17 $33 $0 +1%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals Jun 17 $63 +$1 +1%
Jens Hauge: 2+ goals Jun 17 $64 +$1 +1%
Leo Østigård: 1+ goals Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $2 $0 -20%
Bamba Dieng: 2+ goals Jun 16 $63 +$1 +1%
Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Lucas Digne: 2+ goals Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Iliman Ndiaye: 2+ goals Jun 16 $63 +$1 +1%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ goals Jun 16 $63 +$1 +1%
Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals Jun 16 $79 +$1 +1%
Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ goals Jun 16 $63 +$1 +1%
Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals Jun 16 $64 +$1 +1%
Assane Diao: 2+ goals Jun 16 $63 +$1 +1%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $12 −$9 -74%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 16 $145 +$32 +22%
Mahdi Torabi: 3+ goals Jun 16 $0 $0 +1%
Dennis Eckert: 3+ goals Jun 16 $0 $0 +1%
Kosta Barbarouses: 3+ goals Jun 16 $133 +$1 +1%
Mehdi Ghayedi: 3+ goals Jun 16 $64 +$1 +1%
Lachlan Bayliss: 1+ goals Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Ben Waine: 2+ goals Jun 16 $64 +$1 +1%
Ben Old: 2+ goals Jun 16 $49 $0 +1%
Eli Just: 2+ goals Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Abdallah Al Fakhori: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $7 2m
Abdallah Al Fakhori: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $7 3m
Abdallah Al Fakhori: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $7 3m
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 10m
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY No $0 10m
Odeh Fakhoury: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $13 23m
Abdallah Al Fakhori: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $71 25m
Mohammad Shararah: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $54 29m
Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $25 35m
Abdallah Al Fakhori: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $15 39m
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s SELL No 58¢ $3 54m
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL No $0 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No $0 1h
Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No $0 1h
Cristian Romero: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $107 1h
Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Adil Boulbina: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No $0 1h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL No $0 1h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL No $0 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No $0 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No $0 1h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL No $0 1h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY No $0 1h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY No $0 1h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY No $0 1h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $750.48 · official $750.62 (match) · 1709 history records