Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
44 0x44f2…253e sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-5%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$102
world 21% $0
politics 14% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 4 -24.6% -31.8% 25% 0% -18.1%
≤90d 7 -27.0% -33.9% 43% 0% -15.7%
all 7 -27.0% -33.9% 43% 0% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 0% -15.7%
10% -40.3% 0% -23.7%
15% -46.0% 0% -31.1%
20% -51.3% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$38 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$340
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage80d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $340 $340 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? Jun 17 $265 −$3 -1%
Spread: Hammarby IF (-2.5) May 31 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Spread: Gambia (-1.5) May 30 $466 +$14 +3%
Spread: Perth Glory FC (-2.5) Apr 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-1.5) Apr 25 $431 +$27 +6%
Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5) Apr 06 $192 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 92¢ $340 1h
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $262 6d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $265 6d
Spread: Hammarby IF (-2.5) BUY Hammarby IF 9¢ $48 23d
Spread: Hammarby IF (-2.5) BUY Hammarby IF 9¢ $45 23d
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 23d
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $24 23d
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 23d
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 24d
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 24d
Spread: Gambia (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 97¢ $466 25d
Spread: Perth Glory FC (-2.5) BUY Perth Glory FC 7¢ $25 59d
Spread: Perth Glory FC (-2.5) BUY Perth Glory FC 7¢ $31 59d
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-1.5) BUY Rams Başakşehir FK 94¢ $431 60d
Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5) BUY Getafe CF 97¢ $192 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.84 · official $339.85 (match) · 19 history records