Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:29:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44f1…fa00 crypto 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,464 (-19%) realized −$7,601 · open +$137
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%63W / 145L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$182est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,298
7 days+$1,298
14 days+$1,298
30 days+$1,298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$5,455
sports 29% −$1,789
other 0% −$11
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +67.1% +51.2% 64% 64% +54.4%
≤30d 11 +67.1% +51.2% 64% 64% +54.4%
≤90d 149 -50.0% -54.8% 21% 21% -37.7%
all 208 -23.9% -31.1% 30% 30% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 30% -27.0%
10% -37.7% 29% -34.0%
15% -43.7% 29% -40.4%
20% -49.2% 28% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$273 vs −$170 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$567
Realized−$7,601
Unrealized+$137
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses63 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$182
Open positions2
Markets (closed)208 / 210
History coverage207d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 45¢ 86¢ $180 $342 +$162 (+90%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Yellow Submarine 30¢ 27¢ $250 $225 −$25 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $128 +$653 +510%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $158 +$194 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $519 +$195 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $147 −$140 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $378 +$289 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $136 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $146 +$156 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $70 +$70 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $63 +$116 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 09 $47 −$33 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 09 $239 −$239 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 09 $161 −$156 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 09 $136 −$130 -95%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs May 09 $224 +$308 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 09 $258 −$250 -97%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 09 $309 −$305 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 09 $60 −$56 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 09 $154 +$72 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 09 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 09 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 26 $14 −$13 -94%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $1,965 −$1,965 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $985 +$880 +89%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Pla Apr 25 $545 −$445 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 25 $525 −$502 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 25 $586 +$636 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 25 $200 −$192 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 25 $681 −$653 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 25 $490 +$512 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 25 $470 −$450 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 25 $330 −$315 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 25 $590 +$617 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 25 $393 −$376 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 25 $460 −$443 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 25 $426 −$424 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 25 $550 +$720 +131%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $900 −$882 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 25 $510 −$490 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 25 $292 −$278 -95%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $1,821 +$2,410 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 25 $8 −$8 -93%
Spread: Celtics (-10.5) Apr 25 $1,304 −$1,285 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-11.5) Apr 24 $540 −$532 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 24 $310 −$310 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 24 $222 −$222 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $180 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $15 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $40 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 11m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 30¢ $255 12m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $714 17m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 72¢ $519 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $24 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $567.00 · official $531.17 · 1583 history records