Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44ef…03be crypto 132 markets active 24h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-6%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate64%84W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.7% -13.8% 80% 70% -13.8%
≤30d 48 -4.3% -13.4% 67% 50% -15.0%
≤90d 48 -4.3% -13.4% 67% 50% -15.0%
all 132 -6.5% -15.4% 64% 46% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 46% -16.4%
10% -23.5% 22% -24.4%
15% -30.9% 13% -31.7%
20% -37.6% 8% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses84 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 31 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 31 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 31 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 31 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 27 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 27 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 335 history records