Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:29:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44ec…082c weather 414 markets active 4d ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-3%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%260W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$50
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$81
sports 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -23.4% -30.7% 60% 50% -22.3%
≤30d 241 -29.4% -36.1% 50% 41% -28.0%
≤90d 414 -6.9% -15.8% 63% 46% -13.1%
all 414 -6.9% -15.8% 63% 46% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 46% -13.1%
10% -23.9% 35% -21.4%
15% -31.2% 25% -29.0%
20% -38.0% 16% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses260 / 154
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)414 / 414
History coverage54d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 414 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$3 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$3 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$4 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$4 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$4 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$5 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$6 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $5 +$4 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$3 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or higher on June 13 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 50¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 59¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 56¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? BUY No 15¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? BUY No 25¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? BUY No 17¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 49¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 68¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 60¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10? BUY No 73¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? BUY No 59¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 44¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 29¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 76¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? BUY No 51¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 9? BUY No 65¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? BUY No 55¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? BUY No 65¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 9? BUY No 62¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 49¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 9? BUY No 69¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 9? BUY No 69¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? BUY No 60¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 21¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 69¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 49¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 900 history records