Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:37:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44e8…2089 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (178 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day178.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$49
world 4% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (178 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -7.4% -16.2% 55% 28% -7.1%
≤30d 29 -7.4% -16.2% 55% 28% -7.1%
≤90d 29 -7.4% -16.2% 55% 28% -7.1%
all 29 -7.4% -16.2% 55% 28% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover178.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 28% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 17% -16.0%
15% -31.5% 10% -24.1%
20% -38.2% 7% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day178.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $81 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $122 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $91 +$24 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$49 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $45 −$22 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records