Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44e3…c39e crypto 40 markets active 7d ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$205 (-9%) realized −$244 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$219
world 16% +$88
other 4% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +12.4% +1.7% 100% 100% +1.7%
≤30d 1 +12.4% +1.7% 100% 100% +1.7%
≤90d 34 -21.1% -28.7% 56% 41% -20.1%
all 34 -21.1% -28.7% 56% 41% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 41% -20.1%
10% -35.5% 29% -27.8%
15% -41.7% 12% -34.8%
20% -47.4% 9% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$41 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$244
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage49d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 66¢ 86¢ $133 $172 +$39 (+30%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 82¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? No 25¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 03 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 24 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 24 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 24 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 24 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 24 $272 +$27 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 23 $85 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 23 $79 +$21 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 23 $81 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 23 $93 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 23 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 23 $151 +$47 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 23 $76 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 23 $70 +$30 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 23 $54 +$46 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 23 $93 +$16 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 23 $75 +$23 +31%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Apr 23 $83 −$83 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $202 +$49 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 22 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 22 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 22 $3 +$6 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 89¢ $1 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 8d
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? SELL No 27¢ $8 18d
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? SELL No 27¢ $7 18d
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? SELL No 27¢ $1 19d
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? BUY No 15¢ $2 37d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5? BUY Down 4¢ $2 42d
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? BUY No 27¢ $11 44d
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? BUY No 27¢ $3 44d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $3 53d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $7 53d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $7 53d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $7 53d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $110 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $8 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $71 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $122 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $82 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $67 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $92 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.93 · official $180.80 (match) · 187 history records