Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44e3…da03 other 225 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 214L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$32
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$37
sports 21% −$17
politics 8% −$7
culture 8% −$8
economics 7% −$4
crypto 5% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 224 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)224 / 225
History coverage129d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $120 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $308 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $177 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $436 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $356 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $747 −$2 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $315 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $79 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $353 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $77 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $362 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $371 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $149 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $486 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $436 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $192 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $191 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $414 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $210 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $270 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $638 +$1 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $819 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 4h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 5h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 14h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 16h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 17h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 19h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 20h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 21h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 23h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 25h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 26h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 27h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 30h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 32h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 33h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 35h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 36h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 38h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 39h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 40h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $34 42h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $34 44h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 45h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 47h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 1378 history records