Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
44 0x44e0…470e world 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%38W / 53L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days−$16
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$24
sports 20% +$11
other 15% −$5
politics 8% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 38 +1.2% -8.5% 29% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 48 +1.6% -8.1% 35% 4% -9.3%
all 91 -0.9% -10.3% 42% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.9% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.7% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.9% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses38 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage492d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $101 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $56 +$6 +10%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $380 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $194 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $112 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $7 −$1 -13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $102 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $28 −$5 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $35 −$5 -16%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $382 −$2 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $91 −$9 -10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $159 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $232 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $406 −$4 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $299 +$5 +2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $184 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $288 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $185 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $23 −$2 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $35 −$6 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $28 +$2 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $604 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $210 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $506 +$12 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $193 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $191 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $340 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $9 −$1 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $269 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $105 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $112 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 28 $84 +$6 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $170 +$31 +18%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $154 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $1 $0 +10%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,001 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,360 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $1,090 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $551 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $1,001 +$1 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $1 −$1 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $70 9m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $31 9m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $101 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 7h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 9¢ $15 12h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 9¢ $15 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $79 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $95 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $175 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $141 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $142 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $25 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $26 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $106 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $70 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $148 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $57 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $86 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.86 · official $0.00 · 359 history records