Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44e0…5a40 crypto 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.1% -12.3% 67% 17% -13.3%
≤30d 6 -3.1% -12.3% 67% 17% -13.3%
≤90d 6 -3.1% -12.3% 67% 17% -13.3%
all 6 -3.1% -12.3% 67% 17% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 17% -13.3%
10% -20.7% 17% -21.6%
15% -28.4% 17% -29.2%
20% -35.4% 17% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records