Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44db…9ed4 crypto 154 markets active 5d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate67%103W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day62.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$21
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -11.4% -19.8% 46% 45% -13.9%
≤30d 154 -6.8% -15.7% 67% 31% -12.1%
≤90d 154 -6.8% -15.7% 67% 31% -12.1%
all 154 -6.8% -15.7% 67% 31% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 31% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 24% -20.5%
15% -31.1% 20% -28.2%
20% -37.9% 16% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses103 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage4d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day62.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -22%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -25%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -38%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -17%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -34%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +159%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +129%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +47%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -41%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 391 history records