Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44da…e225 other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2,266 (-6%) realized +$1,560 · open −$3,826
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,947per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$16,917now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$4,458
politics 20% +$632
world 7% −$2,401
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.6% -16.4% 83% 33% -26.4%
≤30d 11 +2.9% -6.9% 91% 55% -22.8%
≤90d 11 +2.9% -6.9% 91% 55% -22.8%
all 11 +2.9% -6.9% 91% 55% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 55% -22.8%
10% -15.8% 9% -30.2%
15% -23.9% 0% -36.9%
20% -31.4% 0% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$3,559 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$16,917
Realized+$1,560
Unrealized−$3,826
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)11 / 20
History coverage25d
Avg bet$1,947
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5,006 $4,120 −$886 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3,732 $3,688 −$44 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3,553 $3,418 −$135 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $2,458 $2,231 −$227 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $2,397 $2,204 −$193 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $775 $886 +$111 (+14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $201 $190 −$11 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 4¢ $2,516 $103 −$2,413 (-96%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $105 $78 −$28 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,969 −$3,559 -90%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $3,817 +$128 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $37 +$3 +7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,840 +$158 +9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,519 +$311 +12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $2,244 +$275 +12%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $104 +$8 +8%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $103 +$17 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $50 +$12 +24%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 05 $1,579 +$229 +14%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $116 +$17 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $409 14m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $3,924 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $539 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $250 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $94 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $496 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $357 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $425 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $1,362 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $332 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,714 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $200 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $69 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $25 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $29 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $79 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $439 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $26 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $321 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $46 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,917.02 · official $16,917.02 (match) · 147 history records