Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44d9…c464 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+6%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate91%31W / 3L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day78.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +7.8% -2.5% 91% 44% -3.7%
≤30d 34 +7.8% -2.5% 91% 44% -3.7%
≤90d 34 +7.8% -2.5% 91% 44% -3.7%
all 34 +7.8% -2.5% 91% 44% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 44% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 24% -12.9%
15% -20.4% 12% -21.3%
20% -28.2% 0% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.08 per $1 lost it wins $4.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses31 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day78.0
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $77 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$4 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $28 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $27 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $29 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records