Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
44 0x44d7…3503 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$210 (+10%) realized +$209 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$161
14 days+$206
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1
crypto 42% +$1
sports 14% +$207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.4% -39.8% 0% 0% -22.5%
≤30d 5 +35.2% +22.3% 40% 20% +1.8%
≤90d 5 +35.2% +22.3% 40% 20% +1.8%
all 5 +35.2% +22.3% 40% 20% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.3% 20% +1.8%
10% +10.6% 20% -7.9%
15% -0.1% 20% -16.8%
20% -9.9% 20% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$54 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$508
Realized+$209
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage11d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $507 $508 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $482 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $163 −$160 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $133 +$367 +276%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $390 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $507 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $482 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $483 25h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $481 26h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $482 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 32¢ $163 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 26¢ $133 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $390 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508.02 · official $508.02 (match) · 12 history records