Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44d7…e529 other 29 markets active 6d ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% $0
politics 23% $0
sports 16% −$1
tech 10% $0
culture 9% $0
crypto 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 15 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 7% -7.8%
all 29 +1.0% -8.6% 55% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage87d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$275 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $460-$470 on the final day of trading o Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at >$335 on the final day of trading of the we Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close at >$670 on the final day of trading of the wee Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$240 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$395 on the final day of trading of the Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 15? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on May 15? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 15? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 21 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 21 $3 $0 +3%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 17 $350 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 17 $595 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 17 $461 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 17 $636 $0 +0%
Will TCU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $629 $0 +0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 17 $359 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 17 $593 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $618 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $372 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $570 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $492 $0 +0%
Will UCLA win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $398 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$240 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $460-$470 on the final day of trading o BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Meta (META) close at >$670 on the final day of trading of the wee BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$275 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Apple (AAPL) close at >$335 on the final day of trading of the we BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$395 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 33d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 33d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 33d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on May 15? BUY No 99¢ $2 33d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 33d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 33d
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 64d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 99¢ $248 92d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 99¢ $99 92d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 92d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $565 92d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $30 92d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $595 92d
Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 100¢ $173 92d
Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 100¢ $173 92d
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 100¢ $459 92d
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 100¢ $461 92d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 99¢ $89 92d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 99¢ $546 92d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 99¢ $139 92d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 99¢ $496 92d
Will TCU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 100¢ $160 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records