Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44d6…23f5 crypto 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-3%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate74%103W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day51.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$27
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$14
sports 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -3.1% -12.3% 66% 37% -18.5%
≤30d 140 +1.1% -8.6% 74% 39% -14.1%
≤90d 140 +1.1% -8.6% 74% 39% -14.1%
all 140 +1.1% -8.6% 74% 39% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 39% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 16% -22.3%
15% -25.3% 6% -29.8%
20% -32.6% 1% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses103 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day51.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 6PM ET? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 5PM ET? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 3AM ET? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 11, 3AM ET? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 2AM ET? Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 11, 2AM ET? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 11, 1AM ET? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 1AM ET? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 11, 12AM ET? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 11, 12AM ET? Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 11, 12AM ET? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 12AM ET? Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 11PM ET? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 10PM ET? Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 10, 10PM ET? Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 10, 10PM ET? Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 10, 9PM ET? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 9PM ET? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 9PM ET? Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 10, 9PM ET? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 8PM ET? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 10, 8PM ET? Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 10, 7PM ET? Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 10, 7PM ET? Jun 10 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 10, 7PM ET? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 10, 6PM ET? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 10, 6PM ET? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 6PM ET? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 10, 5PM ET? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 10, 2PM ET? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 10, 2PM ET? Jun 10 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 2PM ET? Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 2PM ET? Jun 10 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 10, 2PM ET? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 10, 1PM ET? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 10, 1PM ET? Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 1PM ET? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 10, 1PM ET? Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 10, 12PM ET? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 10, 12PM ET? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 12PM ET? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 10, 12PM ET? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 10, 12PM ET? Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 10, 12PM ET? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $3 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 6PM ET? BUY No 61¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 5PM ET? BUY No 27¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 5PM ET? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 5PM ET? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 3AM ET? BUY No 88¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 3AM ET? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 3AM ET? BUY No 37¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 3AM ET? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 3AM ET? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 11, 3AM ET? BUY No 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 11, 3AM ET? BUY No 87¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 3AM ET? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 2AM ET? BUY No 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 2AM ET? BUY No 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 11, 2AM ET? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 1AM ET? BUY No 80¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 1AM ET? BUY No 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 1AM ET? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 1AM ET? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 1AM ET? BUY No 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 1AM ET? BUY No 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 11, 1AM ET? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 11, 1AM ET? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 1AM ET? BUY No 92¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 12AM ET? BUY No 88¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 11, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 530 history records