Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44d5…dafa crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$509 (+17%) realized +$480 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 39L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$1,177
crypto 29% −$254
other 22% −$177
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -32.7% -39.1% 20% 20% +17.5%
≤30d 49 -32.7% -39.1% 20% 20% +17.5%
≤90d 49 -32.7% -39.1% 20% 20% +17.5%
all 49 -32.7% -39.1% 20% 20% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.1% 20% +17.5%
10% ← realistic here -44.9% 20% +6.2%
15% -50.3% 20% -4.0%
20% -55.1% 20% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$36 · ×5.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$480
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 39
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 58
History coverage4d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 26¢ $20 $41 +$21 (+104%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $153 −$12 -8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $153 +$240 +157%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$54 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $68 −$42 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $68 +$98 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$19 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$88 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$11 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$15 -46%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $174 +$650 +373%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $154 −$150 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$44 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$29 +112%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $240 +$691 +288%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $33 +$25 +76%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $35 −$3 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 2¢ $26 29m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY 2¢ $51 31m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? AND Will Portugal win on 2 BUY 4¢ $51 33m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England vs. Croatia end in a BUY 20¢ $192 34m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $141 34m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 2¢ $26 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 2¢ $26 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $153 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 2¢ $26 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 1¢ $26 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $102 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 37h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $53 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $107 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $16 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $21 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $16 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.62 · official $396.64 · 103 history records