Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x44d4…7138
crypto · 82 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$22 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day431.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 43¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+133%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 45¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+122%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +16.3% +5.2% 46% 44% -14.7%
≤30d 82 +16.3% +5.2% 46% 44% -14.7%
≤90d 82 +16.3% +5.2% 46% 44% -14.7%
all 82 +16.3% +5.2% 46% 44% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover431.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.2% 44% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -4.9% 43% -22.8%
15% -14.0% 43% -30.3%
20% -22.5% 38% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.55 · official $4.55 (match) · 547 history records